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經濟學人:阿根廷經濟—環境所迫(2)

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Even if Mr Fernandez wins outright in October (avoiding a run-off election), he will not be sworn into office until December.

即使費爾南德斯在10月獲勝(避免決選),他也要到12月才能就職。
But his words already have the power to move markets and shape the economy.
但他的話已經具備了推動市場和改革經濟的力量。
His claim on August 30th that Argentina was in "virtual default" deepened the market sell-off
他在8月30日宣稱,阿根廷處于“虛擬違約”中,這加劇了市場拋售
(Standard & Poor's, a rating agency, also declared that there had been a temporary, selective default on some of Argentina's obligations).
(評級機構標準普爾公司也宣布阿根廷的某些債務出現了暫時的選擇性違約)。
Creditors will not renegotiate their debts with Mr Macri's lame-duck government,
債權人不會與馬克里沒用的政府就債務進行重新談判,
fearing that Mr Fernandez might force bigger concessions later. The same worry may give pause to the IMF.
因為擔心費爾南德斯可能會在以后迫使他們做出更大讓步。同樣的擔憂可能會讓IMF躊躇不前。
Why should it give billions of additional dollars to Argentina,
當其下一任總統指責IMF幫助制造了
when its next president accuses it of helping to create a "social catastrophe" of rising prices, unemployment and poverty?
物價上漲、失業和貧困等“社會災難”時,它為什么應該給阿根廷額外的數十億美元呢?
Advisers to Mr Fernandez say his campaign rhetoric should not be taken too seriously.
費爾南德斯的顧問表示,他的競選言論不應被過于當真。
"Alberto is acting now as a candidate…appealing to the base; he will govern very differently," says one of his inner circle.
“阿爾貝托現在是候選人之一......很吸引選民;他將以非常不同的方式執政,”他的一個心腹說。

阿根廷經濟—環境所迫(2).jpg

His chief economic adviser, Guillermo Nielsen, has published a more moderate ten-point agenda that leaves some room for optimism.

他的首席經濟顧問古雷默·尼爾森發表了一份更加溫和的十點議程,為樂觀情緒留有余地。
It recognises the need for a budget surplus. And it envisages a "social pact" between the unions
議程承認了預算盈余的必要性并設想在工會和商業之間
and business to tame inflation by moderating wage-claims and price increases.
達成一份“社會公約”,通過降低工資要求和物價上漲來抑制通貨膨脹。
A Peronist government under Mr Fernandez may find it easier to bring the unions into line than today's government does.
費爾南德斯領導下的庇隆主義政府或許會發現,與今天的政府相比,統一工會要容易得多。
According to Federico Sturzenegger, the former governor of Argentina's central bank,
阿根廷央行前行長費德里科·施圖爾辛格表示,
Mr Macri's administration has eschewed that kind of dealmaking because it "did not want to sit the 'old-politics players' at the decision table".
馬克里政府一直在回避這類交易,因為它“不想讓‘老政客’坐在決策桌上”。
The next government may even consider much-needed reforms of labour laws and welfare entitlements,
下一屆政府甚至可能考慮對勞動法和福利待遇進行急需的改革,
according to Emmanuel Alvarez Agis, another adviser who served under Nestor Kirchner, Ms Fernandez's late husband and predecessor as president.
另一名顧問Emmanuel Alvarez Agis說如是,他曾在費爾南德斯已故丈夫、前任總統內斯托爾·基什內爾手下任職。
"The future depends on building coalitions, for change, not governing just from one side or the other," he has said.
他說道,“未來取決于為變革而建立聯盟,而不僅僅是管理某一方面”。
Mr Nielsen says the next government will negotiate with the IMF, rather than walk away from it.
尼爾森表示下一屆政府不會退出而是將和IMF進行談判。
Having already borrowed almost 80% of the $57bn on offer, Argentina will need new loans from the fund to help it repay the old ones.
在570億美元的貸款中,阿根廷已經借入了近80%,因此阿根廷將需要IMF提供新的貸款,以幫助其償還舊貸款。
Mr Nielsen has also described China as a potential "financial life jacket".
尼爾森也將中國描述為潛在的“金融救生衣”
Ms Fernandez, who has remained remarkably quiet during the campaign, is known to covet Chinese investment,
眾所周知, 在競選期間一直保持著驚人沉默的費爾南德斯女士渴望中國的投資,
which might be attracted to Argentina's infrastructure, 5G networks and renewable-energy projects.
中國投資者可能會被阿根廷的基礎設施建設、5G網絡以及可再生能源項目所吸引。
If that is the extent of Ms Fernandez's influence on the next government, foreign investors will be relieved. And so will some Argentines.
如果這就是費爾南德斯對下屆政府的影響力,那么外國投資者將會松一口氣。一些阿根廷人也能安心。
"Many of us could never vote for Cristina and Alberto Fernandez," says a retired woman,
“我們很多人永遠不會投票給克里斯蒂娜和阿爾貝托·費爾南德斯”,
waiting at her bank this week to change pesos into dollars.
一名本周等在銀行將比索兌換成美元的退休女士表示。
"But who can trust any of our politicians after all this?...I trust only my purse."
“但經歷這一切后,我們的哪一位政治家是可以信任的呢?我只相信我的錢。”

譯文由可可原創,僅供學習交流使用,未經許可請勿轉載。

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temporary ['tempərəri]

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adj. 暫時的,臨時的
n. 臨時工

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selective [si'lektiv]

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adj. 選擇的,選擇性的

 
catastrophe [kə'tæstrəfi]

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n. 大災難,大禍,徹底失敗

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claim [kleim]

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n. 要求,要求權;主張,斷言,聲稱;要求物

 
pact [pækt]

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n. 契約,協定,條約

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predecessor ['pri:disesə]

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n. 前輩,前任,原有事物

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covet ['kʌvit]

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v. 妄想,垂涎,貪圖

 
relieved [ri'li:vd]

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adj. 放心的,放松的,免除的

 
candidate ['kændidit]

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n. 候選人,求職者

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social ['səuʃəl]

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adj. 社會的,社交的
n. 社交聚會

 
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